Based on the results of the 2011 election, I am projecting a Liberal majority.
Here is the table of results for 2011. Voter turnout was 49.2% of eligible voters which means there were 9 million eligible voters.
Assuming 50% come out to vote this time, and taking into account approximately 5.5% population growth, there will be 4.757 million voters this election. Let's round up to 4.8 million.
There are 1.1 million civil servants that Tim Hudak alienated with his 100,000 jobs cut slogan. Let's assume most (not all) of them turn out to vote, to save their jobs. Let's assume half of them are married and that, half of their spouses are not civil servants, themselves. Let's assume that most of the spouses vote and that they cast their ballots for anyone but the PC's.
Let's assume ethnic groups comprise about one quarter of the voters who go to the polls. Let's assume just 25% of them cast ballots for the PC's.
When you subtract the civil servants, their spouses and 75% of ethnic voters, Tim Hudak's PC's are competing for what's left of a drastically shrunken pool of voters, about 2.8 million. If they weren't scared off by Tim's hundred thousand job cuts and they forgave him for the so-called arithmetic error (what kind of a bonehead makes a stupid mistake like that?) in his Million Jobs Plan, then there is a chance some of these remaining 2.8 million will vote for Tim. But how many?
Let's assume Andrea Horwath does no better or worse than last time, about a million votes. That leaves 1.8 million for Tim to split with the Liberals, the Greens and all the other parties running in this riding or that. Last time, these fringe parties siphoned away nearly 300,000 votes.
I assumed that of the remaining 1.8 million votes, 200,000 went to the Greens and to the fringe. That left 1.6 million.
The polls suggest the Liberals are capturing 35% of uncommitted voters. But let's assume that, of this remaining 1.6 million, the Liberals gather just 25%, 400,000. That leaves 1.2 million votes for Tim Hudak and his PC's.
The 2014 chart looks like this:
According to my calculations, owing to the fact that popular vote does not necessarily translate exactly into a proportional number of seats, my numbers project a landslide majority for Kathleen Wynne and her Liberals.
What if this is the year everyone turns out to vote? Will that make a difference? Yes, but no.
If all 9.6 million voters cast a ballot on election day, Tim Hudak's PC's have a bigger pool to work with. But according to my calculations and resulting chart, below, even this kind of fantastic turn-out will not help the Tories win the election.
It looks like it'll be a majority under any scenario.
Coincidentally, a new poll released today seems to agree.
Here is the table of results for 2011. Voter turnout was 49.2% of eligible voters which means there were 9 million eligible voters.
Assuming 50% come out to vote this time, and taking into account approximately 5.5% population growth, there will be 4.757 million voters this election. Let's round up to 4.8 million.
There are 1.1 million civil servants that Tim Hudak alienated with his 100,000 jobs cut slogan. Let's assume most (not all) of them turn out to vote, to save their jobs. Let's assume half of them are married and that, half of their spouses are not civil servants, themselves. Let's assume that most of the spouses vote and that they cast their ballots for anyone but the PC's.
Let's assume ethnic groups comprise about one quarter of the voters who go to the polls. Let's assume just 25% of them cast ballots for the PC's.
When you subtract the civil servants, their spouses and 75% of ethnic voters, Tim Hudak's PC's are competing for what's left of a drastically shrunken pool of voters, about 2.8 million. If they weren't scared off by Tim's hundred thousand job cuts and they forgave him for the so-called arithmetic error (what kind of a bonehead makes a stupid mistake like that?) in his Million Jobs Plan, then there is a chance some of these remaining 2.8 million will vote for Tim. But how many?
Let's assume Andrea Horwath does no better or worse than last time, about a million votes. That leaves 1.8 million for Tim to split with the Liberals, the Greens and all the other parties running in this riding or that. Last time, these fringe parties siphoned away nearly 300,000 votes.
I assumed that of the remaining 1.8 million votes, 200,000 went to the Greens and to the fringe. That left 1.6 million.
The polls suggest the Liberals are capturing 35% of uncommitted voters. But let's assume that, of this remaining 1.6 million, the Liberals gather just 25%, 400,000. That leaves 1.2 million votes for Tim Hudak and his PC's.
The 2014 chart looks like this:
According to my calculations, owing to the fact that popular vote does not necessarily translate exactly into a proportional number of seats, my numbers project a landslide majority for Kathleen Wynne and her Liberals.
What if this is the year everyone turns out to vote? Will that make a difference? Yes, but no.
If all 9.6 million voters cast a ballot on election day, Tim Hudak's PC's have a bigger pool to work with. But according to my calculations and resulting chart, below, even this kind of fantastic turn-out will not help the Tories win the election.
It looks like it'll be a majority under any scenario.
Coincidentally, a new poll released today seems to agree.
