Monday, October 10, 2016

Making History

John Dickerson, of CBS's Face the Nation, asked a focus group a great question yesterday. He asked, "We're in a library and let's imagine we're here twenty years from now, and there's a book on the shelf about 2016. How does this story end?".

The "story" he was referring to was the current U.S. presidential election between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. The question was a good one because it provoked thought and reflection about the current times and what we're going through.

I saw an article a few days ago that reported the results of a recent U.S. financial survey. Startlingly, about 70% of survey respondents indicated that they had less than a thousand dollars in their savings account. Now, consider this article by respected economist Larry Summers, which suggests that the global economy is hitting stall speed.  That means that even though the world population is growing, the global economy is not.  That, in turn, means that people are faring worse than before. That's not a good thing. What's worse, as Summers points out in his article, governments and central banks aren't sure what to do about it.

I believe the answer to Dickerson's thoughtful question to his focus group is that the United States is a country of growing inequality between the top 10% and the rest of the population, a process that started in 1980 with the election of Ronald Reagan and one that has accelerated since the new millennium with the election of another Republican, George W. Bush.  I believe that it's this rising inequality of income and wealth which is creating a sense of inequity in society, and which is causing voters to crave a great disruptor-in-chief, like Donald Trump.

In this election year, while showing that he can indeed be the human Molotov cocktail the masses want tossed into 2016 society, Donald Trump has also frightened and offended enough people to prevent them from electing him president.

Returning once again to Dickerson's question then, what will that history book about 2016 say about the era we are proceeding through? I believe it will read that, while Hillary Clinton went on to become president and steady the ship that is the United States of America, that 2016 was a preview of a new era when, years later, a younger, pragmatic version of Bernie Sanders and, perhaps, a nobler version of Donald Trump, would emerge to become the 46th president of the United States, to lead the citizens on a journey toward a more compassionate society. He/she would do it not just because it was the right path to lead them on but because it was a necessary one to strengthen the union and, some would say, indeed, to preserve it.







Wednesday, October 5, 2016

Trump Bows Out

The momentum is with Hillary Clinton.  Take a look at these two apps, 538 and NYT poll that report, more or less in real time, which way the winds are blowing.  Right now they're suggesting it's going to be a Hillary Clinton blowout and a Donald Trump blowup.

If Florida swings Democrat (as it appears to be doing) and if Texas becomes a contest, watch for Trump to bow out of the race, claiming the election's rigged.  Then watch Mike Pence come within a whisker of defeating Hillary.  But it'll be too little too late for the GOP.  And it'll be Hillary Living History all over again.

You heard it here first.


Sunday, October 2, 2016

Could we extinguish the war in Syria if we took away their arms?

Here's a thought: Why don't we take away the armaments we've supplied the warring factions in Syria and then see what happens?  Would the fire of war be extinguished or would the tribes resort to IUD's, hand-to-hand combat, blades and pitchforks?

The United States and Russia are responsible for arming, and in Russia's case, supporting their side in the Syrian war.  A burning fire is being sustained and a growing number of innocent people are being displaced or killed.

What would happen if the United Nations agreed to a weapons non-proliferation treaty of sorts, one where they could not be bought, sold or otherwise conveyed to third-parties beyond their country of manufacture?  It would be akin to choking off the blood supply to cancerous tumors.

What would the warring tribes around the world do, with no one to give them weapons?  Where would they turn, but to their own ingenuity?

This U.N. resolution could incorporate a pledge to protect all nations, in the same way that N.A.T.O. countries are obligated to protect one another, or the way the United States protects its allies.

With an absence of all arms, including rifles and hand guns, warring tribes would have to resort to sticks and stones or, at most, their own brains to make weapons.  In time, either the smartest tribes would come out ahead, or, if found to be committing crimes against humanity, aggressors would be beaten back by the military superiority of one of the few, agreed protector nations, like the United States.

The only losers in the armament-free world would be the private defense contractors, who would no longer enjoy a thriving market for their products, and terrorists.

What's not to like?