You might ask why Canadians would ever give the Conservative party another mandate in Ottawa when they go to the polls later this year (election date still to be determined). The answer is, because only 30% or so of them need to vote for the Conservatives, that's why.
Huh?
That's right. Canada's "First past the post" electoral system means that the candidate with the most votes in each riding wins that riding. The party with the most ridings forms the government. Since the advent of the Bloc Quebecois and the Green parties (ignoring the fringe elements, the Communist party and any other wackos), Canada has five parties that split the vote. Mathematically, as long as you get over 20% of the vote, you win. Practically, since the Greens get so few votes, and since the Bloc Quebecois (the separatists) only run in Quebec and therefore get a small percentage of the vote, that means you have to get around 30% of the vote to form at least a minority government. A majority requires more like 40%, as Jeffrey Simpson stated recently in this G&M piece.
That means Harper, ever the political strategist, only needs to concentrate on his supporters --- business owners, farmers, gun-owners, old white guys, old white guys with money, the fossil fuel industry, the West, rural Ontarians, the wealthy, and young families with good paying jobs and kids in hockey who would like to pay less tax because, let's face it, who doesn't support kids in hockey and who doesn't want to pay tax?
What I'm saying is that Harper will pinpoint which ridings he can win and he will target the Conservatives' money on those ridings. He will also target his platform to resonate with his supporters. And he will go for that 40% to win another majority government.
Is that fair? Of course, it is in Canada's system.
What can be done?
First past the post systems are supposed to eventually result in a two-party system, given enough time. That hasn't happened in my lifetime (57 years). In fact, it's gotten worse. Canada has gone from three political parties to five. Trouble is, there is only one Right-wing party, Harpers's, and there are now four parties to split the left-wing vote.
What to do?
How about adopting second-level run-offs, like they have in France and other countries? Let's say the Conservatives and the Liberals come in 1 and 2 with, say, 38% and 30% of the vote. Let's have a sudden-death final among the top two finalists to settle the score. All of a sudden, we might find that the Liberals win and the result is 62% Liberal and 38% Conservative. Huh? That's right (or Left, depending on how you look at it).
Canada needs a two-stage election process. Now!
Huh?
That's right. Canada's "First past the post" electoral system means that the candidate with the most votes in each riding wins that riding. The party with the most ridings forms the government. Since the advent of the Bloc Quebecois and the Green parties (ignoring the fringe elements, the Communist party and any other wackos), Canada has five parties that split the vote. Mathematically, as long as you get over 20% of the vote, you win. Practically, since the Greens get so few votes, and since the Bloc Quebecois (the separatists) only run in Quebec and therefore get a small percentage of the vote, that means you have to get around 30% of the vote to form at least a minority government. A majority requires more like 40%, as Jeffrey Simpson stated recently in this G&M piece.
That means Harper, ever the political strategist, only needs to concentrate on his supporters --- business owners, farmers, gun-owners, old white guys, old white guys with money, the fossil fuel industry, the West, rural Ontarians, the wealthy, and young families with good paying jobs and kids in hockey who would like to pay less tax because, let's face it, who doesn't support kids in hockey and who doesn't want to pay tax?
What I'm saying is that Harper will pinpoint which ridings he can win and he will target the Conservatives' money on those ridings. He will also target his platform to resonate with his supporters. And he will go for that 40% to win another majority government.
Is that fair? Of course, it is in Canada's system.
What can be done?
First past the post systems are supposed to eventually result in a two-party system, given enough time. That hasn't happened in my lifetime (57 years). In fact, it's gotten worse. Canada has gone from three political parties to five. Trouble is, there is only one Right-wing party, Harpers's, and there are now four parties to split the left-wing vote.
What to do?
How about adopting second-level run-offs, like they have in France and other countries? Let's say the Conservatives and the Liberals come in 1 and 2 with, say, 38% and 30% of the vote. Let's have a sudden-death final among the top two finalists to settle the score. All of a sudden, we might find that the Liberals win and the result is 62% Liberal and 38% Conservative. Huh? That's right (or Left, depending on how you look at it).
Canada needs a two-stage election process. Now!
