Recent polling suggests that Hillary Clinton is leading Donald Trump by 6-10 points in the swing states. I am surprised they are not showing a wider lead.
I predict Hillary will get two thirds of the popular vote. Here's how I come up with that:
Trump has alienated all non-whites and other minorities, as well as women. The only group he hasn't offended (so far) is white men.
America's racial profile is roughly 13% black, 17% Latino, 6% Asian, 62% white and 2% "other". Assuming Hillary Clinton wins all the non-white voters plus the traditional 30% of the white vote that the Democrats win, she will win the election. But wait, of the 70% of white voters that vote Republican, normally, half are women and I assume half of those women will also vote for Hillary because they don't like Trump.
My math yields 67% for Hillary, 33% for Trump. Go ahead and check it.
Now, admittedly, this is a crude estimate based on very broad assumptions. Obviously, some non-whites will vote Republican and perhaps more white women will vote for Trump but, on the other hand, some white men who normally support Republican candidates may in fact vote for Hillary this time for whatever personal reason (maybe they are war vets who feel Trump has betrayed them).
In summary, I believe Donald Trump will lose very badly in this election and the GOP will be doing much soul-searching afterward. As they should.
I predict Hillary will get two thirds of the popular vote. Here's how I come up with that:
Trump has alienated all non-whites and other minorities, as well as women. The only group he hasn't offended (so far) is white men.
America's racial profile is roughly 13% black, 17% Latino, 6% Asian, 62% white and 2% "other". Assuming Hillary Clinton wins all the non-white voters plus the traditional 30% of the white vote that the Democrats win, she will win the election. But wait, of the 70% of white voters that vote Republican, normally, half are women and I assume half of those women will also vote for Hillary because they don't like Trump.My math yields 67% for Hillary, 33% for Trump. Go ahead and check it.
Now, admittedly, this is a crude estimate based on very broad assumptions. Obviously, some non-whites will vote Republican and perhaps more white women will vote for Trump but, on the other hand, some white men who normally support Republican candidates may in fact vote for Hillary this time for whatever personal reason (maybe they are war vets who feel Trump has betrayed them).
In summary, I believe Donald Trump will lose very badly in this election and the GOP will be doing much soul-searching afterward. As they should.
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