According to this week's polls and experts, Donald Trump will win in South Carolina tomorrow. Depending on whom you ask, he is ahead of the next closest candidate, Ted Cruz, by 5 to 18 percentage points.
I'm not so sure.
For one thing, the polls that have been taken are based on small sample sizes -- typically around 500 supposedly registered Republican voters in a state where around 650,000 of them voted in the last primary, in 2012. That means their margin of error is huge, around 5 to 7%, statistically, all other things being equal, which means, in turn, that the lead could flip in the final contest tomorrow.
For another thing, Trump supporters are more likely to brag about their support for him, wearing their support of a non-politician, an outsider, as a badge of honor. Since polls rely on a telephone respondent's willingness to "take a short poll", I believe that Trump supporters are more likely to wish to share their support of this straight-shootin' non-politically-correct disruptor of establishment politics.
Finally, in case anyone missed social studies class, South Carolina is a southern state. Ted Cruz is a good ol' southern boy (regardless of where he was born). He's one of theirs. Donald Trump is a bombastic New Yawka; a Yankee. He might as well be a foreigner to some South Carolinians. Whom do you think voters are more apt to trust?
I predict Ted Cruz will win South Carolina tomorrow.
p.s. I am a Democratic supporter.
I'm not so sure.
For one thing, the polls that have been taken are based on small sample sizes -- typically around 500 supposedly registered Republican voters in a state where around 650,000 of them voted in the last primary, in 2012. That means their margin of error is huge, around 5 to 7%, statistically, all other things being equal, which means, in turn, that the lead could flip in the final contest tomorrow.
For another thing, Trump supporters are more likely to brag about their support for him, wearing their support of a non-politician, an outsider, as a badge of honor. Since polls rely on a telephone respondent's willingness to "take a short poll", I believe that Trump supporters are more likely to wish to share their support of this straight-shootin' non-politically-correct disruptor of establishment politics.
Finally, in case anyone missed social studies class, South Carolina is a southern state. Ted Cruz is a good ol' southern boy (regardless of where he was born). He's one of theirs. Donald Trump is a bombastic New Yawka; a Yankee. He might as well be a foreigner to some South Carolinians. Whom do you think voters are more apt to trust?
I predict Ted Cruz will win South Carolina tomorrow.
p.s. I am a Democratic supporter.
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