Sunday, February 28, 2016

Two Days Before Super Tuesday 2016

It's a three-way race for the GOP nomination as we head into Super Tuesday.  According to the latest polls, Donald Trump is way out in front and favored to win the most delegates on Tuesday.  When it's all over, he could have a total of 277 delegates, if my math is correct, more than Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio combined (275 total).  After March 1, delegates will be awarded on a Winner-Take-All basis.  Since Trump is leading polls in upcoming states, including mega states like Florida (99 delegates), New York (95 delegates) and California (172 delegates), Trump should win the GOP nomination with the minimum 1237 delegates that are required.



Unless Rubio and Cruz team up after Super Tuesday.  If that happens, either through one of the two of them dropping out of the race after Super Tuesday, which is unlikely, or by their cutting a deal at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, July 18-21, which is very likely, then Trump will be the GOP candidate for president.

And here's the interesting part: If Hillory Clinton is the Democratic nominee, as many predict -- according to the polls -- only Rubio would beat her.  Trump versus Clinton and Cruz versus Clinton contests are, at this point anyway, too close to call.

Sources:
Polls
Super Tuesday explained
Delegates leading up to Super Tuesday
How GOP primaries work in 2016

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