Saturday, March 5, 2016

How Trump Changed the Game

Donald Trump seems to know his audience, basically, a dumbed-down America.  It took thirty-five years, but I give credit to Reagan and the GOP for driving America in the ditch like this.  Trump plays to it.  He makes it up as he goes.  He speaks their street language.  He appeals to how they feel.

The rest of us -- his opponents, the media -- don't seem to get it.  I thought the Fox News Detroit debate moderators asked excellent questions and were well prepared with their facts when they confronted Trump.  Yet they were trying to argue rationally.  Rubio, Cruz and Kasich don't get it either.  They're trying to debate Trump about policy, that is, when they're not ganging up on his track record as a businessman, something they are not qualified to comment on, according to Trump.  But it's not so much about policy for Trump.  It's about the the reason behind whatever policy of the day he is espousing.

The reason is always because Donald Trump wants to "make America great again" which, loosely, correlates with more jobs and a better life for Americans, right?  As such, it is tough to nail him down on policy.  Or anything, for that matter.  It's too late to nail him down, quite frankly.  He has first-mover advantage.  He was the first to coin the slogan "Make America Great Again".  He is the master marketer in this game.  That's because he changed the game.

The game is about appealing to the bottom 75% of America.  Provided he can motivate them to vote, he will amass a majority of GOP delegates and he will become the party's nominee for president.

So far, they are coming out to vote.  Seven hundred and forty thousand people voted in the SC primary a few weeks ago, nearly a hundred thousand more than in 2012.  And on Super Tuesday, GOP voter turnout was way up, sometimes setting new records.

What about his opponents?  Cruz and Rubio are senators and part of the regular political establishment.  That's why Trump uses every opportunity he gets to point out that they are funded by big money lobbyists and other donors, and that he personally hates "That word, politician" and, by inference, politicians.  He is in one stroke identifying with the masses, stating that he is not one of the political Establishment, and that his opponents are!  That's masterful.

In this game that Donald Trump has defined, except for Ben Carson, whom he "loves", his opponents are automatically disqualified.

And what about John Kasich?  I thought he was the one that made the most sense on stage Thursday night.  Unfortunately, he too doesn't get it.  The conventional war he is fighting is not the war that Trump is winning.  Kasich, though justified in making the case that he is the one with the most experience and the best track record as a politician, buried himself by doing so.  He just put an exclamation point behind the argument that he is one of the Establishment.

The rest of the GOP -- John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mitch McConnell, Paul Ryan -- do more damage by attempting to stop Trump than they would by lying silent.  They too are Establishment politicians, after all.

Who will win the contest for president?  If it's Trump versus Sanders, I think Sanders will win.  Yes, he too is an established politician but people don't see him that way.  They seem him as champion of the little guy.  And someone with more integrity than Trump.  Sanders is therefore a less risky bet.

If it's Trump versus Hillary, then I think the advantage will go to Trump, although the race will be very close.  And if Clinton's past comes back to haunt her (remember the emails, Benghazi, even Whitewater, for heaven's sake), definitely Trump over Clinton.

The way it looks now, Clinton will be the Democratic nominee.  So, it looks like Donald Trump will be the 45th President of the United States of America.



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